Today it was my privilege to contribute the care of the guardians of our freedom. Today Dr. James Shultz of Miami University - Miller School of Medicine's Disaster and Extreme Event Preparedness (DEEP) Center and I presented Surge Capacity and Disaster Psychological First Aid training to the men and women of the Miami Veterans Administration Medical Center.
The morning began with a wonderful overview of the state of the VAMC system disaster preparedness and the leadership role of Miami VAMC in that national preparedness. Following this review by the VAMC administration, Dr. Shultz blew the audience away with his review of the science behind the numbers for patient surge in extreme events. I followed with a review of the real numbers of hospital beds, surge capacity and predicted pandemic flu impact. The first session ended with an interactive terrorism based surge event exercise.
- 955,768 registered hospital beds in the United States (AHA 2005 survey)
- 96% average occupancy at peak of cold/flu season (AHA 2005 survey)
- Need 20% surge (191,154), but only have 4% (38,231) (HHS Pan Flu Plan)
- Alternately HRSA recommends surge of 500 beds per 1 million (150,000)
- Short between 111,769 and 152,923 beds
- 105,000 Ventilators in United States (Michael Olsterholm – NEJM)
- 18% Out of Service for Maintenance and Repair (18,900)
- 67% used on Chronic Vent Patients (70,035)
- 105,000 less 18% (18,900) and less 67% (70,035) means 16,365 Vents for Acute Care
- 300 million people in the United States as of October 1, 2006 (US Census Bureau)
- In a pandemic expect 33% to become ill (100 million)
- Half will require hospitalization (50 million)
- Only 955,768 beds total and only 38,231 available
- Half of hospitalized will suffer ARDS and qualify for intubation (25 million)
- Only 105,000 ventilators and only 16,365 available
- Half of the ARDS patients will die in the United States (12.5 million)
- Approx. 500 million will die world wide (more than the entire US population)
- CDC Numbers: 50% of 33% = 16.5% Hospitalized
50% of 16.5% = 8% ARDS
50% of 8.25% = 4% Die
The second session of the morning featured Dr. Shultz introducing Integrated Triage which combines aspects of MASS triage, START/JumpSTART triage and Behavioral Triage. Theory was made reality by my signature story of triaging 5387 patients in the Louis Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans, Louisiana following hurricane Katrina. The session ended with an interactive triage exercise based on the first session's terrorism exercise.
The last session of the morning demonstrated the interconnection of medical and psychological first aid in every aspect of disaster medicine and disaster response. The final morning exercise reviewed the response of the group to the terrorism exercises of the morning and related them to the provision of psychological first aid.
Following a brief lunch, Dr. Shultz and I reviewed the special situations of surveillance, isolation, quarantine, decontamination and the SARS experience. The definitions of disaster, catastrophe and resilience were reviewed:
- Disaster = Needs > Resources
- Catastrophe = Needs > Ability to Respond
- Resilience = Resources > Needs - aka - Mastery Against Adversity
The rest of the afternoon was devoted to the well being of the audience. With 2007 being the Year of Resilience (unofficially), the concepts of individual and organizational stress were reviewed with the SARS experience illustrating the stressors anticipated for the coming pandemic flu.
The program ended with a review of the resilience toolbox, a set of resources to help the audience build their own resilience and ensure that Resources will always exceed Needs.
Attendees are invited to click on "Comment" to submit questions and comments to Dr. Shultz and myself. Please subscribe to this blog by email or RSS Feed to be kept up to date on answers to your questions and the questions of others from this and future presentations. If you subscribe by email, you will receive a free copy of The Original My Medical Records personal medical records software and a copy of the Integrated Triage flowchart.